Our Motor Résumé and Forecast

Show Time Approaches with New Models and Prices and the Purchaser in a Commanding Position

GEORGE W. SUTTON, JR.

LAST April the president of a well known automobile company wrote a long story which received great prominence in a number of widely read newspapers, some of which even published his picture to lend added importance to his words of wisdom. The article was similar to many that appeared about that time, and attempted to prove that during the year 1921 there would be practically no changes in automobile prices, and that there would be a tremendous car shortage. That was six months ago. Since that time there have been 115 radical price changes, all downward, and there has not been the slightest vestige of a shortage in automobiles.

Another statement of this executive was to the effect that labour and materials used in car building were not subject to much curtailment in cost, and would have little or no effect in reducing prices. In a vast majority of the announcements which have accompanied price cuts on various automobiles of high and low degree, the manufacturers have stated that the new prices were made possible by the reduced costs of labour and materials.

So there you are. But where are you? If you are interested in automobiles, either from the standpoint of a car user or a member of the industry, you are in a fine state of mental muddle. And that is exactly the state in which everybody approaches the date when the opening of the national automobile shows will usher in the 1922 season.

Never was prediction so difficult and so risky. Never was an analysis of conditions so likely to be wrong. Just a year ago, in the face of considerable criticism and doubt, we ventured to prophesy that automobile prices were going to be materially reduced, otherwise a lot of companies then making cars would go out of business. Subsequent events have vindicated that statement, and we have no hesitation in forecasting more price changes in the months to come. It must be remembered, however, that some companies are doing very well in the present market and their prices may go upward instead of downward.

One of the greatest surprises of the weary eighteen months through which we have just passed has been the fact that practically no important automobile companies have failed. A number of small poorly-financed organizations have disappeared, or gone into the hands of receivers, but, in spite of many pessimistic rumours, there have been no big crashes. Whether any will come in the near future remains to be seen. It is practically certain that some small companies have hung on as long as they could and will be calling for help shortly.

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The worst seems to be over. For the moment prices seem to have reached a level of stability except for sporadic readjustments. A few companies have held out against the price cutting. Most of them will either drop their prices or bring out new models at lower figures. A healthy increase is noticeable almost everywhere in the buying of new cars and stockholders in the various motor companies are beginning to see visions of a return to normal dividends.

In other words, the motor car industry, for the first time in its history, has had a thorough "shake-down". For twenty-eight years this commercial giant has been spreading to its present huge proportions, with never a check or anything to stunt its growth. From the first it has received more publicity than any other industry in the world, with the possible exception of motion pictures. Practically all of the printed comment has been of a favourable nature so that when bad times came upon the industry, as they came upon numerous other commercial groups who were already accustomed to the ups and downs of business, the motor Goliath was shocked, not to say grieved and stunned. The David who threw the fatal stone was the car buyer, liberally assisted by the Federal Reserve Banks. It is this David who is now standing over the fallen giant dictating peace terms. These terms are already being accepted and executed. Their most important provisions call for better cars at cheaper prices, and these we are now beginning to get in large numbers.

Last January something like 500 different body models were being offered to the public, a vast majority of which were priced at over $3,000. How times have changed since then! At show time last winter there were only four makes of cars selling for less than $1,000. Now there are thirteen, with several more expected to come into the fold. The following table should be of interest to motorists who like to keep posted on motoring conditions. The figures for 1920 and January, 1921, were borrowed from Motor Magazine. The September figures are our own:

Number of makes Jan. Sept. Price class 1920 1921 1921 Cars selling under $1,000 . 10 4 13 $1,000-81,499.. 30 17 41 $1,500-$ 1,999.. 47 38 60 $2,000-$2,499.. 29 41 59 $2,500-82,999.. 34 41 45 $3,000 & over.. 47 81 69

I was tempted to go a bit further and make a guess on next year's figures but caution intervenes. This table is approximately correct to-day, but is likely to undergo radical changes to-morrow. Such is the present state of fluctuation in the motor world, a condition which, I fear, is going to continue for some time.

We now come to a season of the year when a motor frenzy seizes us. From November 27th to December 3rd, the Automobile Salon at the Hotel Commodore, New York, will show to some extent what the custom body makers and standard car manufacturers have in store for us in the way of new creations. The most serious depression has been felt in the realm of the high priced car. Some people who have always had money are "security-poor". The stocks and bonds they hold have receded so in value that they can be sold only under strictest compulsion, while the income tax has reduced the activity of more than one person of easy spending habits. Many war fortunes have been dissipated, or are being hoarded, in the realization that the war is over and that the golden opportunities which presented themselves to those who were able to stay out of it may not come again for many a long day. Therefore it will be interesting to see what the creators of our finest motor car bodies have conceived to lure the elusive buyer and how people of wealth will react to the new designs.

Then will come the big National Shows. There are several things that may be said with reasonable certainty about the New York and Chicago expositions. One is that in all probability the visitors at the shows will be more numerous than in any other year. Public attention has been so focussed on the motor industry that a price change on the part of a moderately important company in Detroit or Cleveland gets a front page story in a New York paper. Nearly everybody likes to believe he is aware of what is going on in the motor world. During the past year or so motoring has received many thousands of converts who motor and thousands of new fans who do not motor now but would like to. Then again, the introduction of such interesting light weight medium price cars as the Durant, the Buick "Four" and a number of others has implanted in the public generally a desire for closer inspection. Countless people who have been unwilling or unable to purchase new cars will flock to the shows to see what is being offered in case they decide to enter, or re-enter, the market.

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Show visitors in the early part of 1922 will see absolutely nothing in the way of startling changes in body styles, unless I am greatly mistaken. It may be possible that a few companies are planning surprising innovations but nothing has come out about them so far. There will be less radical change in body styles than ever before in the history of the industry. Last year there was the McFarlan radiator to talk about, the Franklin hood and a few other things. This year, so far, there has been no indication of anything but a desire on the part of all manufacturers to give the most complete cars possible at the best price, upon the body lines which have become standard in the past three years.

The tendencies for 1922 are all toward simplicity, comfort, the elimination of unnecessary ornaments and gew-gaws, performance and economy, with tremendous emphasis on the latter. Motorists are beginning to learn more about motor cars and are becoming dissatisfied with the high gasoline consumption of the average car. They are demanding greater mileage and those very few cars which are achieving it are in no danger of lack of buyers. This is where a great deal of the progress of the immediate future will be made. Lighter weight with better riding qualities have been sought for a long time and the quest is still on. Such matters as automatic lubrication of all chassis points, greater ease in getting the oil out of the crankcase, better carburetion, better regulation of engine temperatures and other equally important matters will be found to have received much attention in the new cars.

Already a considerable number of new models have made their appearance. There have been many sporting roadsters and four-passenger touring cars. A number of stunning new closed cars have come out in both the high priced and low priced fields. Paige, Saxon, Columbia, Lexington, Chalmers, Elgin, Pilot, Liberty, and Lincoln are among those who have introduced new sporting models of the twoor four-passenger types, or both. Stanley steamer has a fine looking new roadster which cannot be distinguished in appearance from a high class gasoline car. Maxwell, Auburn, and Columbia have appeared or are about to appear with entirely new lines of cars. The Saxon coupe, the H. C. S. sedan, the new Dodge sedan, the Reo coupe, the Handley-Knight sedan-limousine, the PierceArrow brougham, sedan, sedan-limousine and coupe, the Brewster cabriolet, the Paige coupe, the Packard sedan and sedan-limousine, the Sterling-Knight enclosed models, the Lincoln sedan, the four new Stearns closed cars, the Mar-

mon sedan, sedan-limousine and coupe and the Meteor sedan are all new and all worthy of the most critical inspection, although not one of the new models mentioned here has the slightest radical note in it so far as lines are concerned. The new Duesenberg cars are out, in roadster and touring models. Not a bit of harm was done to this new line by the Duesenberg victory in the famous French Grand Prix. Cadillac, Leach, Gardner, Briscoe and Velie will probably be seen in new dress by show time.

Among the cars, the makers of which say they are not contemplating any change in styles at present, are the Buick "Six", the Case, Stutz, Franklin, Nash, Cleveland, Hupmobile, Holmes, and Franklin.

A number of new names have appeared in the motor world during the past few weeks. The Raleigh Standardized Six is about to be launched in Buffalo, N. Y. This will be an assembled car of 132 inches wheelbase to sell in the neighbourhood of $2,000. The Long, another assembled machine, has made its appearance in Boston with a wheelbase of 121 inches and a moderate price. Out in Seattle plans are in progress for the manufacture of the Totem car, using a new form of friction transmission. The company behind this vehicle is building a factory capable of turning out 40,000 cars a year. Arrangements are being made in Hoboken, N. J., to manufacture the Rotarian car, which will be equipped with the Bournonville rotary valve engine. An entirely new type of automobile, without axles, the drive being by spindles and the frame being supported upon cross springs, is the aim of a company now organizing in Jamestown, N. Y. The car will be called the Birmingham and is the invention of Mr. C. E. Weaver, an experienced automotive engineer. Its mechanical parts will be assembled from the best units on the market.

Houston, Texas, is to have a car all its own. This will be the Ranger, for which a large factory is now being built. The Doble steam car, which made its first appearance in 1916, is, according to reports, about to be seriously launched in San Francisco with West Coast capital. This machine created enormous interest when displayed at the New York Show but it was sidetracked during the war. It is to be hoped that this time some progress will be made, for there is a genuine interest on the part of the public in steam cars.

Canada is coming forward as an automotive manufacturing center. Several well known makes of American trucks are now being manufactured there and at least two all-Canadian passenger cars will soon be placed upon the market. These will be the Mercury Six and the Parker, put out by two different companies in Montreal.

A recent development of interest has been the return to independent status of the Mercer and the Locomobile. Both of these famous cars have left the protecting wings of Hare's Motor, and each will go it alone, with new people and new money. It is likely that Hare's Motors will take over the manufacturing and selling of other lines of passenger cars.